Tag Archives: Decision Making

Uncovering time variations in decision making of agents that do not always respond with the same policy

January 8, 2026 12:21 ,

Anne E. Urai, Structure uncovered: understanding temporal variability in perceptual decision-making, Trends in Cognitive Sciences, Volume 30, Issue 1, 2026, Pages 54-65 10.1016/j.tics.2025.06.003.

Studies of perceptual decision-making typically present the same stimulus repeatedly over the course of an experimental session but ignore the order of these observations, assuming unrealistic stability of decision strategies over trials. However, even ‘stable,’ ‘steady-state,’ or ‘expert’ decision-making behavior features significant trial-to-trial variability that is richly structured in time. Structured trial-to-trial variability of various forms can be uncovered using latent variable models such as hidden Markov models and autoregressive models, revealing how unobservable internal states change over time. Capturing such temporal structure can avoid confounds in cognitive models, provide insights into inter- and intraindividual variability, and bridge the gap between neural and cognitive mechanisms of variability in perceptual decision-making.

See also: the no so strong influence of time in some cognitive processes, such as speech processing (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2025.05.017)
Posted in: Psycho-physiological bases of engineering , Tagged: , ,

A review of cognitive costs of decision making

September 4, 2025 08:36 ,

Christin Schulze, Ada Aka, Daniel M. Bartels, Stefan F. Bucher, Jake R. Embrey, Todd M. Gureckis, Gerald Häubl, Mark K. Ho, Ian Krajbich, Alexander K. Moore, Gabriele Oettingen, Joan D.K. Ongchoco, Ryan Oprea, Nicholas Reinholtz, Ben R. Newell, A timeline of cognitive costs in decision-making, Trends in Cognitive Sciences, Volume 29, Issue 9, 2025, Pages 827-839, 10.1016/j.tics.2025.04.004.

Recent research from economics, psychology, cognitive science, computer science, and marketing is increasingly interested in the idea that people face cognitive costs when making decisions. Reviewing and synthesizing this research, we develop a framework of cognitive costs that organizes concepts along a temporal dimension and maps out when costs occur in the decision-making process and how they impact decisions. Our unifying framework broadens the scope of research on cognitive costs to a wider timeline of cognitive processing. We identify implications and recommendations emerging from our framework for intervening on behavior to tackle some of the most pressing issues of our day, from improving health and saving decisions to mitigating the consequences of climate change.

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Adding time series forecasting to the model of the system in decision making

May 29, 2025 11:44 ,

Francesco Zito, Vincenzo Cutello, Mario Pavone, Data-driven forecasting and its role in enhanced decision-making, Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, Volume 154, 2025, 10.1016/j.engappai.2025.110934.

Decision-making is a crucial process for any organization, since it involves the selection of the most effective action from a variety of options. In this context, data plays an important role in driving decisions. Analyzing data allows us to extract patterns that enable better decision-making for achieving specific goals. However, to make the right decisions to control the behavior of a system, it is necessary to take into account different factors, which can be challenging. Indeed, in dynamic systems, numerous variables change over time, and understanding the future state of these systems can be crucial for controlling the system. Predicting future states based on historical data is known as time series forecasting, which can be divided into univariate and multivariate forecasting, with the latter being particularly relevant due to its consideration of multiple variables. Deep Learning methods enhance decision-making by identifying patterns in complex datasets. As data complexity grows, techniques like Automated Machine Learning optimize model performance. The present study introduces a novel methodology that integrates multivariate time series forecasting into decision-making frameworks. We used Automated-Machine Learning to develop a predictive model for forecasting future system states, aiding optimal decision-making. The study compares machine learning models based on performance metrics and computational cost across various domains, including weather monitoring, power consumption, hospital electricity monitoring, and exchange rates. We also analyzed the importance of the hyperparameters in identifying key factors affecting model performance. The obtained results show that Neural Architecture Search method can improve state predictor design by reducing computational resources and enhancing performance.

Posted in: Probability and statistics , Tagged: ,

On the problem of choice overload for human cognition

May 8, 2025 11:06 ,

Jessie C. Tanner, Claire T. Hemingway, Choice overload and its consequences for animal decision-making, Trends in Cognitive Sciences, Volume 29, Issue 5, 2025, Pages 403-406 10.1016/j.tics.2025.01.003.

Animals routinely make decisions with important consequences for their survival and reproduction, but they frequently make suboptimal decisions. Here, we explore choice overload as one reason why animals may make suboptimal decisions, arguing that choice overload may have important ecological and evolutionary consequences, and propose future directions.

Posted in: Psycho-physiological bases of engineering , Tagged: ,

Robot exploration through decision-making + gaussian processes

October 24, 2024 06:18 ,

Stephens, A., Budd, M., Staniaszek, M. et al. Planning under uncertainty for safe robot exploration using Gaussian process prediction, Auton Robot 48, 18 (2024) DOI: 10.1007/s10514-024-10172-6.

The exploration of new environments is a crucial challenge for mobile robots. This task becomes even more complex with the added requirement of ensuring safety. Here, safety refers to the robot staying in regions where the values of certain environmental conditions (such as terrain steepness or radiation levels) are within a predefined threshold. We consider two types of safe exploration problems. First, the robot has a map of its workspace, but the values of the environmental features relevant to safety are unknown beforehand and must be explored. Second, both the map and the environmental features are unknown, and the robot must build a map whilst remaining safe. Our proposed framework uses a Gaussian process to predict the value of the environmental features in unvisited regions. We then build a Markov decision process that integrates the Gaussian process predictions with the transition probabilities of the environmental model. The Markov decision process is then incorporated into an exploration algorithm that decides which new region of the environment to explore based on information value, predicted safety, and distance from the current position of the robot. We empirically evaluate the effectiveness of our framework through simulations and its application on a physical robot in an underground environment.

Posted in: Robot motion planning , Tagged: , ,

Setting up goals, even unproductive or unuseful ones, can help in building cognition

July 5, 2024 07:51 ,

Junyi Chu, Joshua B. Tenenbaum, Laura E. Schulz, In praise of folly: flexible goals and human cognition, Trends in Cognitive Sciences, Volume 28, Issue 7, 2024, Pages 628-642 DOI: 10.1016/j.tics.2024.03.006.

Humans often pursue idiosyncratic goals that appear remote from functional ends, including information gain. We suggest that this is valuable because goals (even prima facie foolish or unachievable ones) contain structured information that scaffolds thinking and planning. By evaluating hypotheses and plans with respect to their goals, humans can discover new ideas that go beyond prior knowledge and observable evidence. These hypotheses and plans can be transmitted independently of their original motivations, adapted across generations, and serve as an engine of cultural evolution. Here, we review recent empirical and computational research underlying goal generation and planning and discuss the ways that the flexibility of our motivational system supports cognitive gains for both individuals and societies.

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Continuous POMDPs through belief state sparsification, applied to active SLAM

October 20, 2023 08:56 ,

Elimelech K, Indelman V. Simplified decision making in the belief space using belief sparsification. The International Journal of Robotics Research. 2022;41(5):470-496 DOI: 10.1177/02783649221076381.

In this work, we introduce a new and efficient solution approach for the problem of decision making under uncertainty, which can be formulated as decision making in a belief space, over a possibly high-dimensional state space. Typically, to solve a decision problem, one should identify the optimal action from a set of candidates, according to some objective. We claim that one can often generate and solve an analogous yet simplified decision problem, which can be solved more efficiently. A wise simplification method can lead to the same action selection, or one for which the maximal loss in optimality can be guaranteed. Furthermore, such simplification is separated from the state inference and does not compromise its accuracy, as the selected action would finally be applied on the original state. First, we present the concept for general decision problems and provide a theoretical framework for a coherent formulation of the approach. We then practically apply these ideas to decision problems in the belief space, which can be simplified by considering a sparse approximation of their initial belief. The scalable belief sparsification algorithm we provide is able to yield solutions which are guaranteed to be consistent with the original problem. We demonstrate the benefits of the approach in the solution of a realistic active-SLAM problem and manage to significantly reduce computation time, with no loss in the quality of solution. This work is both fundamental and practical and holds numerous possible extensions.

Posted in: Mobile robot SLAM , Tagged: , ,

Mixing logical planning with NNs for decision making

July 11, 2023 09:04 ,

Zuo, G., Pan, T., Zhang, T. et al., SOAR Improved Artificial Neural Network for Multistep Decision-making Tasks, . Cogn Comput 13, 612–625 (2021) DOI: 10.1007/s12559-020-09716-6.

Recently, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been applied to various robot-related research areas due to their powerful spatial feature abstraction and temporal information prediction abilities. Decision-making has also played a fundamental role in the research area of robotics. How to improve ANNs with the characteristics of decision-making is a challenging research issue. ANNs are connectionist models, which means they are naturally weak in long-term planning, logical reasoning, and multistep decision-making. Considering that a small refinement of the inner network structures of ANNs will usually lead to exponentially growing data costs, an additional planning module seems necessary for the further improvement of ANNs, especially for small data learning. In this paper, we propose a state operator and result (SOAR) improved ANN (SANN) model, which takes advantage of both the long-term cognitive planning ability of SOAR and the powerful feature detection ability of ANNs. It mimics the cognitive mechanism of the human brain to improve the traditional ANN with an additional logical planning module. In addition, a data fusion module is constructed to combine the probability vector obtained by SOAR planning and the original data feature array. A data fusion module is constructed to convert the information from the logical sequences in SOAR to the probabilistic vector in ANNs. The proposed architecture is validated in two types of robot multistep decision-making experiments for a grasping task: a multiblock simulated experiment and a multicup experiment in a real scenario. The experimental results show the efficiency and high accuracy of our proposed architecture. The integration of SOAR and ANN is a good compromise between logical planning with small data and probabilistic classification with big data. It also has strong potential for more complicated tasks that require robust classification, long-term planning, and fast learning. Some potential applications include recognition of grasping order in multiobject environment and cooperative grasping of multiagents.

Posted in: Artificial Intelligence , Tagged: , ,

Studying magician tricks to understand decision making and how to influence it

July 10, 2023 08:31 ,

Alice Pailhès, Gustav Kuhn, Mind Control Tricks: Magicians’ Forcing and Free Will, . Trends in Cognitive Sciences, Volume 25, Issue 5, 2021, Pages 338-341 DOI: 10.1016/j.tics.2021.02.001.

A new research program has recently emerged that investigates magicians’ mind control tricks, also called forces. This research highlights the psychological processes that underpin decision-making, illustrates the ease by which our decisions can be covertly influenced, and helps answer questions about our sense of free will and agency over choices.

Posted in: Psycho-physiological bases of engineering , Tagged:

Interesting alternative to the classical “maximize expected utility” rule for decision making

October 23, 2020 16:54 ,

EtienneKoechlin, Human Decision-Making beyond the Rational Decision Theory, Trends in Cognitive Sciences, Volume 24, Issue 1, January 2020, Pages 4-6, DOI: 10.1016/j.tics.2019.11.001.

Two recent studies (Farashahi et al. and Rouault et al.) provide compelling evidence refuting the Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) hypothesis as a ground model describing human decision-making. Together, these studies pave the way towards a new model that subsumes the notion of decision-making and adaptive behavior into a single account.

Posted in: Psycho-physiological bases of engineering , Tagged: