Clustering time series through the moments of the corresponding regimes using fuzzy

Roy Cerqueti, Pierpaolo D\u2019Urso, Livia De Giovanni, Massimiliano Giacalone, Raffaele Mattera, Weighted score-driven fuzzy clustering of time series with a financial application, Expert Systems with Applications, Volume 198, 2022 DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2022.116752.

Time series data are commonly clustered based on their distributional characteristics. The moments play a central role among such characteristics because of their relevant informative content. This paper aims to develop a novel approach that faces still open issues in moment-based clustering. First of all, we deal with a very general framework of time-varying moments rather than static quantities. Second, we include in the clustering model high-order moments. Third, we avoid implicit equal weighting of the considered moments by developing a clustering procedure that objectively computes the optimal weight for each moment. As a result, following a fuzzy approach, two weighted clustering models based on both unconditional and conditional moments are proposed. Since the Dynamic Conditional Score model is used to estimate both conditional and unconditional moments, the resulting framework is called weighted score-driven clustering. We apply the proposed method to financial time series as an empirical experiment.

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